Glacial acetic acid
Last week, the glacial acetic acid market bottomed out and the trading atmosphere turned from weak to better. At the beginning of the week, corporate inventories further increased, and transportation in the Northwest and North China regions gradually resumed. Enterprises had different shipping sentiments. Overall shipments in the Northwest were smooth, with traders and downstream companies mainly replenishing goods in urgent need. The relative trading atmosphere in the East and South China regions was not good. ; Near the middle of the week, as the northwest auction prices rose, the overall market sentiment for purchasing goods improved. Traders in some regions were active in stocking up, and downstream mainly purchased goods on demand, so market prices gradually increased.
Market outlook forecast and analysis
Supply forecast: This week, the southwest unit will maintain maintenance, which will be extended, and Guangxi Huayi Phase I will resume. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will increase.
Demand forecast: Ethyl acetate relies on the execution of export orders, and the ethyl ester capacity utilization rate may remain at the current level this week; the butyl acetate Baichuan unit is expected to restart, and the capacity utilization rate will increase slightly; the vinyl acetate unit will be maintained for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. ; PTA Yisheng Ningbo and New Materials plan to increase the load, and have reduced or stopped installations or continued maintenance. It is expected that the PTA capacity utilization rate will not fluctuate greatly.
Comprehensive forecast: The current market supply is still running at a high level, but as the long-term contract settlement is about to end, the overall market atmosphere for purchasing goods has improved slightly. It is expected that the price of glacial acetic acid may rise first and then fall in the near future.
Ethyl acetate
Last week, the market price of ethyl acetate dropped. A month-on-month decrease of 1.69 percentage points.
At the beginning of last week, the price of ethyl acetate market continued to fall under the influence of negative logic on the raw material side, and factory shipments were mediocre for several consecutive days. Although the road transportation resistance in the northern region gradually weakened, most industry players considered that the acetic acid market would be difficult to rise, which continued to drag down the mentality of the industry. , traders and downstream traders are generally willing to enter the market, and the terminal consumption speed is difficult to change. With the continued contradiction between supply and demand, prices continue to weaken. In the later period, as the price of the raw material acetic acid market stabilized and strengthened under the support of declining supply, the cost side returned to support the market, and local snowfall weather in Jiangsu affected transportation. In addition, individual factory inventories were low, and the quotations were not lowered, thus boosting the output of surrounding factories. Volume and prices have stabilized.
The strong price of raw material acetic acid in the short term makes cost logic continue to support the price of ethyl ester. In addition, the current price is hovering near the cost line, and export orders are abundant. The upstream has the willingness to increase, but the domestic demand is in the off-season background. The middle and lower reaches mostly maintain rigid purchases. There is a lack of willingness to increase stockpiling, and overall
The increase remains to be studied, and it is expected that the market price of ethyl acetate will increase this week.
Butyl acetate
Last week, the transaction price of butyl acetate market was in a stalemate and fluctuated. A month-on-month increase of 0.26 percentage points.
At the beginning of last week, the market price of butyl acetate returned to stable operation, the market price of raw material acetic acid continued to fall partially, the n-butanol market was relatively firm, the operation trends of dual raw materials were different, and the market guidance from the cost side was limited. Although some units were shut down, but It has not boosted downstream buying enthusiasm, and the consumption of downstream users is extremely limited. The price difference with similar products continues to widen, and the terminal consumption speed is mediocre. Factory shipments continue to be sluggish, and some factories offer discounts to sell goods. Subsequently, the price of the raw material n-butanol in the market continued to rise due to problems with individual devices. The raw material side regained support for the market. However, due to weak terminal demand, the range of factory price adjustments was restrained, and the follow-up of buying gas was suspended. Inquiries and transactions did not improve significantly. , the market maintains a stalemate trading atmosphere.
Looking at this week, the market may continue to maintain a low supply situation, demand may be difficult to increase, and the market price adjustment resistance is relatively large, while the cost side may continue to be in a strong situation. There is still support for the bottom of the price, but the motivation is not sufficient. It is expected that the market price of butyl acetate may settle at a high level this week.
Post time: Dec-25-2023