Domestic acetic acid market prices fell this week. The market price of ethyl acetate fell this week. Butyl acetate market prices fluctuated within a narrow range this week.
Market outlook forecast and analysis
Supply forecast: Henan Shunda is expected to undergo maintenance next week, Sinopec Great Wall and Guangxi Huayi are expected to resume operations, and capacity utilization is expected to rise within a narrow range next week.
Demand forecast: The load of ethyl acetate Taixing Jinjiang and Anhui Ruibai devices has increased, the Yangzijiang device has restarted, and the ethyl acetate capacity utilization rate has increased this week. Butyl acetate Yangzijiang unit was shut down, and the butyl acetate industry’s capacity utilization rate dropped this week.
Comprehensive forecast: At present, the overall sales pressure of the factory will not be strong starting from the new long-term contract next week, but the downstream enthusiasm for purchasing goods is not good. It is expected that the price of glacial acetic acid in the next period will be stable and weak.
Industry chain profit analysis
This week, the downstream profits of glacial acetic acid mainly declined. Recently, the overall profit of glacial acetic acid has declined due to the higher methanol price at the cost end and the loosening of its own price. Ethyl acetate and butyl acetate have recently seen profits continue to decline due to high raw material prices and poor sales.
Glacial acetic acid
Recently, the market price of glacial acetic acid has loosened, and the market trading atmosphere is not good. At the beginning of the week, factory inventories rose overall in a narrow range. Although there was not much sales pressure, the high price area in the early period as factories gradually recovered
The overall price is gradually declining, and the overall trading atmosphere in other regions is mixed. In the northwest region, due to some factories shutting down for maintenance, the immediate need for replenishment is relatively active, and the overall factory shipments are good; in North China and Shandong regions, prices are looser due to adjustments based on supply and demand in the region. many. At present, the long-term contract is about to end, the factory’s overall supply is low, and the market is gradually stabilizing.
Recently, the overall fluctuation of glacial acetic acid inventory in various regions has not been large. With the planned maintenance of factories and unexpected failures, the overall shipping sentiment of various factories is different. In the northwest region, as the Great Wall is undergoing maintenance this week and the extension is extended, the overall shipping sentiment has improved. The region mainly needs replenishment; in North China and Shandong, as the early equipment failure gradually recovers, factory supply gradually recovers, and the inventory in the region increases slightly; in East China, with the maintenance of Celanese, the inventory of enterprises in the region increases slightly ; In the South China region, inventory dropped significantly due to the unexpected shutdown of the Guangxi device. It is expected that corporate inventories may rise within a narrow range in the next period.
Ethyl acetate
The market price of ethyl acetate fell this week. The lowest price in the East China market during the week was 5,895 yuan/ton in cash ex-factory, and the highest price was 5,925 yuan/ton in cash ex-factory. The weekly average price was 5,911 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton from last week. A month-on-month decrease of 1.15 percentage points.
At the beginning of the week, industry players expressed different opinions on the market outlook. Most of them considered that weak demand would affect buying sentiment. However, the short-term raw material side was still relatively strong. Factories were subject to cost pressure and were once again less willing to make profits. However, traders and downstream traders were optimistic about the current situation. The degree of price recognition is limited, and many delistings consume inventory. Although there is a periodic demand for replenishment, the incremental buying willingness is not sufficient. Subsequently, the price of raw material acetic acid fell, the cost end of the market support disappeared, and the long-term lack of transaction volume led to factory inventory There is a backlog, the market has a strong negative sentiment, and prices continue to weaken.
Looking at next week, market demand will continue to constrain market sentiment. Compared with weak demand, market supply is at a relatively high level. At the same time, the price of raw material acetic acid is running weak, and it is difficult to increase market transaction volume. It is expected that the market price of ethyl acetate may weaken next week, and may pick up in the mid-to-late period with the support of phased replenishment, but the changes will be limited.
Butyl acetate
Butyl acetate market prices fluctuated within a narrow range this week. The lowest price in the East China market during the week was 7,475 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 7,525 yuan/ton. The average weekly price was 7,495 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from last week, and down 0.01 percentage point from the previous week.
At the beginning of the week, the market prices of raw materials acetic acid and n-butanol were relatively strong, and the cost was still supported by the market. Boosted by the news, the upstream offers were strong, while the downstream maintained the pace of rigid demand purchases. The overall market circulation was not optimistic. Most industry players said they still have some concerns about the market outlook. Afterwards, the raw material n-butanol market maintained a volatile trend, while the price of glacial acetic acid was relatively weak, with average support from the cost end. It was difficult to follow up on downstream demand, slow terminal consumption, and high upstream construction levels. The contradiction between market supply and demand was prominent. Goods continue to be blocked.
Next week, the butyl acetate market may be strong. Recently, the market price of raw material n-butanol has risen again, and the cost side supports the market mentality. If downstream companies enter the market to replenish supplies, factory inventories are expected to increase after digestion.
Post time: May-24-2024