Glacial Acetic Acid and Acetate Esters Industry Weekly Report

Market Forecast and Analysis
Supply Forecast: Anhui Huayi is expected to resume normal operation next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise.
Demand Forecast: The Yanzhou Lunan unit of ethyl acetate is currently restarting, and the Anhui Huayi unit has a restart plan. The capacity utilization rate of ethyl acetate will rise next week; there is no plan to start or stop the butyl acetate unit, and the capacity utilization rate of butyl acetate will not fluctuate much next week; Celanese is expected to resume vinyl acetate next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise. PTA Dushan Energy has already put in feed, and will gradually increase the load next week.
Comprehensive Forecast:At present, the overall supply and demand in the market is relatively balanced, and enterprises do not have much sales pressure for the time being. Longzhong Information predicts that the Glacial Acetic Acid market may continue to push up the trend in the next period.

Glacial acetic acid situation

This week, the glacial acetic acid market is relatively balanced in supply and demand, and prices are slightly rising. At the beginning of the week, as factory inventories further declined, Guangxi units were running at reduced load, and Southwest units were undergoing maintenance, inventories and capacity utilization rates fell simultaneously, and the mentality of the industry was supported, and factories were operating slightly higher; near the middle of the week, traders had little supply, East China factories were gradually limiting supply, and downstream companies mainly replenished stocks on demand. The overall market trading atmosphere was good, and prices continued to rise slightly.

Analysis of acetic acid inventory

As of December 16, the inventory of domestic acetic acid enterprises this week was about 121,700 tons, down 6.69% from the previous month.
During this period, the inventory of glacial acetic acid continued to decline. At present, some factory units have been running at a reduced rate, and the overall factory mainly executes long-term contracts, with less retail volume. Therefore, the market trading atmosphere is still good, and the inventory of enterprises continues to decline. Longzhong Information predicts that the inventory of glacial acetic acid may continue to decline in the next period.

Acetic acid price/capacity utilization analysis
During this period, Shunda and Guangxi Huayi operated at reduced load, Celanese maintained reduced load, Anhui Huayi had a short shutdown, and the Southwest unit was scheduled to shut down for maintenance, so the capacity utilization rate fell this week.

Weekly review of acetic acid demand

Ethyl acetate situation

Last week, the market price of ethyl acetate fell first and then rose. The lowest price in the East China market during the week was 5180 yuan/ton ex-factory, and the highest price was 5280 yuan/ton ex-factory. The weekly average price was 5238 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton from the previous week, and down 0.80 percentage points from the previous week.
At the beginning of the week, the transaction price of ethyl acetate market continued to loosen. Although the rise in the price of raw material acetic acid has a certain boost to the market, the mentality of the industry is mostly cautious. Based on the expected increase in the supply side of Shandong and Henan devices in the later period, and the slow consumption of downstream substantial demand, the contradiction between market supply and demand may gradually become prominent. Some holders choose to actively make concessions for shipments. The market is mostly short-ordered. Most factories have poor transactions, and the pressure on factory inventory has increased accordingly. In the second half of the week, the temporary shutdown of Anhui Huayi and Yankuang Lunan devices once again dominated the market logic, and the supply-side negative turned into positive. The daily increase in Shandong exceeded 100 yuan, and the market sentiment was obvious. However, considering the weak actual demand at the terminal and the short supply-side shutdown expectations, the downstream continued to chase the rise. In this week, there is an expectation of recovery on the supply side, but after last week's digestion, the upstream inventory is controllable and has no pressure. Short-term operation is still preferred, but with the downstream replenishment, the terminal inventory needs to be digested, and the downstream continued procurement is limited. In addition, the raw material market continued to rise insufficiently, and the market guidance was limited. It is expected that after the rise of the ethyl acetate market, as the supply side recovers, there may be a weakening expectation.

Butyl acetate situation

The market focus of butyl acetate continued to fall last week. The lowest price in the East China market during the week was 6575 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6700 yuan/ton, and the average price was 6615 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from the previous week, and down 2.65 percentage points from the previous week.
At the beginning of the week, the market focus of butyl acetate negotiations continued to weaken, among which the price of raw material n-butanol weakened, and the price of acetic acid rose slightly. The different trends of the two raw materials led to limited substantial guidance of the cost facing the market. At the same time, the downstream demand side was difficult to see improvement, and the purchasing enthusiasm continued to be poor. Only small orders of rigid demand were maintained, and the manufacturer's shipping atmosphere was not smooth. Under inventory pressure, they chose to make concessions for shipments. Then the price fell to a low point, the industry's profits shrank, and the factory was again unwilling to make concessions. At the same time, the trend of raw material n-butanol was expected to be positive, which temporarily supported the release of some buying demand. The market transaction atmosphere improved slightly, but the trading volume was still difficult to increase.
This week, there is no news of maintenance or shutdown on the supply side, but due to the recent weak prices, attention should be paid to whether the shrinking profit side will affect the start-up situation and the willingness of downstream demand to follow up. Although the terminal consumption rate is slow, there is still a periodic buying demand. In addition, the raw material n-butanol may be consolidated, and the cost-side goods support the bottom price. Longzhong expects that the market price range of butyl acetate will be adjusted.