Data this week
1) As of June 17, the inventory of domestic acetic acid enterprises this week was about 113,300 tons, down 7.43% from the previous month.
2) As of June 20, the domestic production of glacial acetic acid this week was 219,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.05%.
Market forecast and analysis
Supply forecast: Ineos and Jiantao are expected to recover next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise next week.
Demand forecast: There is a restart plan for the ethyl acetate Jinyimeng plant, and the capacity utilization rate will rise slightly next week; the butyl acetate Xintiande plant is planned to restart, and some plants in East China are planned to be shut down, and the capacity utilization rate will fluctuate narrowly next week; the capacity utilization rate of vinyl acetate may increase next week; PTA will restart next week at Pengwei, and Formosa Chemicals 2# and Hengli Huizhou 1# are planned to restart, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase significantly next week.
Comprehensive forecast: The long-term contract cycle of this month will end next week, and the factory inventory may not fluctuate much, but the industry has a weak outlook on the demand in the future market. It is expected that the price of glacial acetic acid may fall slightly in the next period.
This week, the domestic acetic acid market price performance varied across regions. This week, the market center of gravity of ethyl acetate rose slightly. This week, the market price of butyl acetate fell.
This week, the profit of the downstream industry chain of glacial acetic acid has recovered slightly.
The price of glacial acetic acid has been relatively strong recently, while the price of raw material methanol has loosened, so the profit has increased slightly; the price fluctuation of raw materials of ethyl acetate and butyl acetate has been limited recently, and their own prices are relatively strong, so the profit has recovered slightly; the price of vinyl acetate has risen slightly recently due to the slight increase in raw material prices, but the profit has fallen slightly.
This week, the profit of the downstream industry chain of glacial acetic acid has recovered slightly.
The price of glacial acetic acid has been relatively strong recently, while the price of raw material methanol has loosened, so the profit has increased slightly; the price fluctuation of raw materials of ethyl acetate and butyl acetate has been limited recently, and their own prices are relatively strong, so the profit has recovered slightly; the price of vinyl acetate has risen slightly recently due to the slight increase in raw material prices, but the profit has fallen slightly.
Glacial acetic acid
The market fluctuation of glacial acetic acid in this period is limited. At the beginning of the week, as the inventory of enterprises continued to decline, the market sentiment was not good due to the gradual recovery of the equipment, so the factory price was lowered, and the market fell synchronously. The mentality of the industry was temporarily unsupported, and the trading atmosphere was not good; near the middle of the week, with the postponement of the restart of the Nanjing factory and the shutdown of the Hebei equipment for maintenance, traders and downstream companies gradually waited and watched, and the price fluctuation was relatively limited.
Glacial acetic acid enterprise inventory continued to decline in this period, and the factory’s unexpected failures continued, which made the supply gradually recover. Therefore, the overall shipment pressure of enterprises was not great. In addition, some regional traders and downstream companies mainly replenished on demand. The overall trading atmosphere of the market was still good. It is expected that the inventory of enterprises in the next period may fluctuate narrowly.
During this period, INEOS continued to shut down, Yanzhou Coal Mine fluctuated, and Hebei Jiantao restarted and then shut down. The overall capacity utilization rate fell this week.
Ethyl acetate
This week, the market price of ethyl acetate rose first and then fell, up 0.58 percentage points month-on-month.
At the beginning of the week, the market price of ethyl acetate rose slightly and then stabilized briefly. The downstream and traders responded flatly, the terminal consumption speed continued to be slow, and the market was short of new orders. The transaction volume of mainstream factories weakened again. Some of the previous low-priced sources were still being executed. The upstream shipments were under pressure again, and the inventory was at a high level.
It was difficult to fall. Subsequently, the mainstream factories gave priority to shipments, and the mentality of entering the market was cautious under the falling market. At the same time, the price of raw material acetic acid continued to fall, and the market was full of negative news. Traders actively sold goods and continuously lowered the market transaction price. The downstream mentality continued to be cautious, and there was no willingness to make up orders at a low level. Most of them withdrew from the market to consume inventory.
Next week, the contradiction between supply and demand still exists. There is a plan to restart the Jinyimeng device, and the poor performance of terminal consumption capacity may still be not optimistic. The market will still be subject to the suppression of the demand level, and the market trend of raw material acetic acid and ethanol is not optimistic, and the cost side may have a certain negative impact. It is expected that the center of gravity of the ethyl acetate market will fluctuate weakly next week.
Butyl acetate
This week, the market price of butyl acetate was stable but weak. The weekly average price was the same as last week.
At the beginning of the week, the market price of butyl acetate fell from a high level. Affected by the downward trend in the price of raw material n-butanol, the cost aspect did not provide sufficient support to the market. Downstream purchases continued to weaken, and there were few inquiries on the market. The market outlook of the industry was not optimistic. Most of the short orders on the market were configured. Some traders were willing to take profits and actively sold goods. Then the price of raw material n-butanol rose again. The raw material side provided obvious support to the market. Although there was no bright spot in the terminal demand, some traders covered the short position and based on the improved mentality of the raw material for the future market, the market inquiry quotations increased, and the factory’s quotations remained strong under cost pressure.
Next week, the rise in raw material n-butanol brought obvious support. At present, the downstream maintained rigid demand for replenishment. In the later period, as the price continued to rise, there was no lack of resistance to the price, and the pressure on the supply side increased accordingly. If the cost pressure continued, the upstream may slowly follow up the increase. It is expected that the butyl acetate market may maintain a strong operation next week, and pay attention to the guidance on the cost side.
Post time: Jun-21-2024