Data of this week
As of June 6, the domestic production of glacial acetic acid this week was 212,700 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.60%.
Market forecast and analysis
Supply forecast: Celanese and Yanzhou Coal are expected to resume next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise next week.
Demand forecast: The Jinyimeng unit of ethyl acetate will reduce its load slightly, and the capacity utilization rate will drop slightly next week; the Dongying Yisheng unit of butyl acetate is planned to restart, and the Baichuan unit is expected to be shut down, and the capacity utilization rate will fluctuate narrowly next week; the vinyl acetate Zhejiang Petrochemical and Anhui Wei may continue to increase their load, and the capacity utilization rate will rise narrowly next week; PTA New Materials and Hanbang plan to increase their load, and Hengli Huizhou 1# plans to be overhauled, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise next week.
Comprehensive forecast: The factory as a whole does not have much sales pressure for the time being, and the overall inventory is not high. The main downstream demand for glacial acetic acid is supported. It is expected that the price of glacial acetic acid will remain strong in the next period.
The domestic acetic acid market price adjusted slightly this week. The ethyl acetate market price was weak and consolidated this week. The butyl acetate market price continued to rise this week.
Glacial acetic acid
The glacial acetic acid market was slightly stagnant during this period. The overall shipping pressure of upstream factories was not great. The downstream mainly executed long-term contracts, and there were few new orders. At the beginning of the week, the inventory of enterprises continued to decline, the factory mentality was supported, and prices were mostly stable; near the middle of the week, as the main factory in Shandong reduced its load due to equipment failure, the factory pushed up the market. Although the market followed the rise to a limited extent, it boosted the mentality of other factories, and other regional markets mostly shipped normally; after the middle of the week, with the fluctuations on the supply side, the industry gradually waited and operated, and the market trading atmosphere was flat.
The inventory of glacial acetic acid in this period rose and fell in various regions. In some regions, the overall supply volume decreased as the factory stopped for maintenance, which led to a decline in inventory. In some regions, the price stopped falling and the shipping sentiment improved, so the factory inventory decreased, while the inventory of some factories increased slightly due to the restart of the equipment. It is expected that the inventory of enterprises in the next period may rise slightly.
Ethyl acetate
This week, the market price of ethyl acetate was weak, down 6 yuan/ton from last week, down 0.10 percentage points from the previous month.
During the week, the ethyl acetate market was stable for a long time. Although the production of various factories was not high, compared with the weak demand, the overall supply of the market continued to be sufficient, and the domestic terminal consumption level continued to decrease. It is reported that some ink factories have seasonal maintenance plans, and the downstream negative feedback sentiment is strong. In addition, some factories have delayed the arrival of export ships, resulting in an increase in domestic circulation. The demand for shipments is significant, and the actual transaction price has weakened slightly. Most of the industry has a heavy bearish sentiment in the future market, and the transfer order is given priority to shipping in volume. At the end of the week, the price of raw acetic acid rose slightly. Although the cost side has some support for the market, it is difficult to beat the prominent contradiction between market supply and demand, and the factory consolidates shipments first. In the later period, the domestic downstream demand is still weak, and the market may not have much purchasing power. In addition, the negotiation of export orders is also light. Although the upstream supply is not high, it is difficult to form a strong support for the market, and the contradiction between market supply and demand has only increased. As for raw materials, the prices of acetic acid and alcohol have both risen slightly, but it is difficult to provide support in the short term. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market may fluctuate and consolidate next week, and attention should be paid to cost changes.
Butyl acetate
This week, the market price of butyl acetate continued to rise. It rose by 100 yuan/ton compared with last week, and rose by 1.31 percentage points month-on-month.
At the beginning of the week, due to the continuous price increase, the downstream recognition was not good, but the raw material n-butanol market rose again after being boosted by policies. The cost side once again supported the market mentality. The upstream was willing to increase prices. However, due to the weak demand at the end, the market new order negotiations were deadlocked, resulting in the overall market increase.
It was difficult to follow up with raw materials, and the factory inventory and shipment pressure continued to increase. In the later period, due to the continued tight supply of raw material n-butanol, the price increase was expanding. Under the guidance of the cost side, the factory had sufficient motivation to increase prices, but some operators still gave slow follow-up to demand, lacked confidence in the future market, and had poor willingness to buy at high prices. A small number of operators who feared price increases entered the market for small orders, and prices remained high.
Next week, the supply side may maintain the current level. The demand side is affected by the seasonal off-season, and the downstream demand is still weak. The current price is high, and the advantages of some homogeneous related products are prominent, resulting in a reduction in downstream consumption and a significant imbalance between supply and demand. However, the raw material side may continue to operate at a high level, which may support the absolute market price. It is expected that the market price of butyl acetate will be mainly firm next week.
Post time: Jun-07-2024