Glacial Acetic Acid and Acetate Esters Industry Weekly Report

Acetic acid situation
Recently, with the release of the centralized maintenance plan for factories in the market, the overall market sentiment has been strengthened, and prices have turned from falling to rising. The East China and South China regions have maintained an upward trend. This week, the Northwest market has been relatively strong. The Ningxia plant is expected to be overhauled in late March, and factories have gradually prepared stocks. The overall demand sentiment in the Northwest downstream is still good, and prices are stable; prices in North China and Shandong regions fell at the beginning of the week, and the increase in supply led to poor trading sentiment in the region, but near the middle of the week, due to the maintenance plan of the main factories in Shandong and Hubei plants, the market sentiment reversed; the overall supply and demand in the East China region is relatively balanced, and the market is running smoothly;
With the factory maintenance in the South China region, the market sentiment is strong.

Acetic acid inventory analysis
As of February 10, the inventory of domestic acetic acid enterprises this week was about 178,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.19%.
During this period, glacial acetic acid continued to rise. Factories in Northwest and South China gradually accumulated inventory and operated according to the later maintenance plan. Other regions mainly executed long-term contracts. After returning from the holiday, the northern region was affected by the increase in supply, and the market was mainly on the sidelines. The inventory fluctuations of some factories were limited, and the inventory fluctuations of factories in East China and South China were not large. Longzhong Information predicts that the inventory of glacial acetic acid may fall slightly in the next period.

Acetic acid production/capacity utilization analysis
Celanese recovered during this period, Shunda and Hubei Huayi reduced their loads, and other units maintained their previous loads, so the capacity utilization rate rose this week.

Situation of ethyl acetate downstream of acetic acid
This week, the transaction price of ethyl acetate market fell first and then rose. The East China market rose by 17 yuan/ton compared with last week, an increase of 0.33 percentage points month-on-month.

At the beginning of the week, the transaction price of ethyl acetate market loosened, and the downstream was not willing to accept the goods. The main reason was that the downstream industry had not fully resumed work after the holiday, and some of the previous supply had to be consumed, and the purchase of new orders was not strong. At the same time, considering that the raw material acetic acid market was strong in the south and weak in the north, the cost side caused the industry to be cautious about the future market. The upstream shipment demand still existed, and some companies that were blocked from shipping made concessions. Subsequently, low-price transactions continued to increase in volume, and the execution of some export orders in East China boosted the transaction volume in Shandong. The improvement in trading boosted the participation of the industry. At the same time, the demand side was in the stage of improvement, and there was a demand for replenishment. The factory premium rate continued to increase, supporting the factory's firm offer, and finally ended with price increases.
Short-term raw material cost pressure still exists, and the supply pressure in the market after the holiday is mostly within the controllable range. Although the downstream will basically return to normal around the Lantern Festival, the demand has a phased increase in volume, and at the same time, with the shipment of export orders, the pressure on the supply and demand side is not great. Focus on the negative impact of the weakness on the cost side on the market. Longzhong predicts that the market price of ethyl acetate may rise and then stabilize in the short term.

Situation of butyl acetate downstream of acetic acid
The market price of butyl acetate rose this week. The East China market rose by 100 yuan/ton compared with last week, up 1.54 percentage points month-on-month.

At the beginning of the week, the market price of butyl acetate rose tentatively. The rise in the price of raw material n-butanol boosted the market sentiment. At the same time, the local supply was not high, and the upstream quotation price was relatively strong. However, there was a negative feedback sentiment in the downstream demand, and the slow consumption rate restrained the market increase. While the terminal factories have not fully resumed work after the holiday, some pre-holiday pre-sale orders are still to be sold, and the demand side is insufficient to follow up. The willingness to purchase new orders is poor, and only some small orders are followed up. Later, the news of the maintenance of raw material n-butanol was released within the month, and the price continued to rise, resulting in an increase in production costs. The factory offered firmly. Traders and downstream were boosted by the rise in the price of raw material n-butanol. The mentality of chasing the rise was positive, the market trading sentiment improved, the trading volume increased significantly, and the factory shipped smoothly.
Next week, the supply of butyl acetate market may not change much, and we should pay attention to the dynamics of Shandong and East China plants. However, there may be a certain recovery on the demand side, and the supply and demand side may have short-term support but the boost is limited. The wide increase in the price of raw material n-butanol boosted the market sentiment. Considering the acceptance of downstream, some companies still focus on shipments. It is expected that the market focus will continue to be strong next week, and the increase will focus on the recovery of demand.

Market forecast and analysis
Supply forecast: Guangxi Huayi will maintain maintenance next week, and Hubei Hualu is expected to be overhauled. If there is no unexpected sudden change in other plants, the capacity utilization rate is expected to drop sharply next week.

Demand forecast: Ethyl acetate is expected to recover in Hebei and Hubei plants next week, and the start-up of ethyl acetate will continue to rise; Baichuan plant of butyl acetate is planned to restart next week, and the start-up of butyl acetate will rise: the capacity utilization rate of vinyl acetate will not fluctuate much next week; PTA Hengli Huizhou 2.5 million tons plant will undergo a ten-day maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to drop.

Comprehensive forecast: The current market is concentratedly affected by the spring maintenance, and the mentality is supported. Longzhong Information predicts that the market price may rise in the next period.