Glacial Acetic Acid and Acetate Esters Industry Weekly Report

Data this week
1) As of March 10, the inventory of domestic acetic acid enterprises this week was 151,300 tons, down 4.66% from the previous month.
2) As of March 13, the domestic production of glacial acetic acid this week was 224,800 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.58%.
Market forecast and analysis
Supply forecast: Guangxi Huayi is expected to resume production next week, and Sinopec Great Wall has a maintenance plan. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to rise next week.
Demand forecast: The ethyl acetate unit is scheduled to restart or undergo maintenance next week. If there is no accident, the capacity utilization rate is expected to be stable; the butyl acetate unit in Taixing Jinjiang will resume production next week, and attention will be paid to the situation of the Yanzhou Coal Mine Lunan butyl acetate unit. The capacity utilization rate is expected to increase; Sinopec Great Wall plans to shut down vinyl acetate, and pay attention to the progress of the commissioning of the new unit in Ningxia Baofeng. The capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly; there is no planned fluctuation in the PTA unit next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly.
Comprehensive forecast: At present, the overall trading atmosphere in various regions is weak, and there is no expected positive news in the market. Longzhong Information predicts that market prices may decline in the short term.

Price of glacial acetic acid
This week, the price of glacial acetic acid has been running low, and the decline in each region varies. Due to the lack of follow-up in the surrounding markets in the early stage, the Northwest region has seen its own inventory increase, and the supply of goods from surrounding areas has been diverted to the Northwest, so the factories have successively lowered prices to ensure their normal shipments; due to the delay of the main factory maintenance in North China and Shandong, the factory has a positive attitude towards shipment, so the price has gradually fallen, but the overall transaction atmosphere is poor; the price in East China and Central China has been affected by the reduction in the northern region, and the local mentality has been affected, and the price has followed a narrow decline; there is an expectation that the South China factory will resume maintenance in the near future, and the quotations of local traders in the region have gradually fallen, and the downstream is mostly on the sidelines.

Analysis of glacial acetic acid inventory
As of March 10, the inventory of domestic acetic acid enterprises this week was 151,300 tons, down 4.66% from the previous month.
During this period, the trend of glacial acetic acid inventory in different regions was different. There was an increase in North China, Northwest China, and Central China, while other regions fell. Last week, due to the sharp increase in prices in the Northwest, some sources of goods from North China, Shandong, and Henan were sent to the Northwest for arbitrage, and the inventory of some factories decreased. However, the shipments of factories in the Northwest generally increased due to the later maintenance plan. The inventory in East China, Northeast China and other regions decreased due to the normal recovery of ships. Longzhong Information predicts that the inventory of glacial acetic acid in the next period may increase slightly.

Ethyl acetate situation
The transaction price of ethyl acetate market rose slightly this week. The lowest price in the East China market during the week was 5,200 yuan/ton ex-factory, and the highest price was 5,265 yuan/ton ex-factory. The weekly average price was 5,253 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from last week, and up 0.67 percentage points from the previous month.

At the beginning of the week, the ethyl acetate market maintained stable shipments, and the price of raw acetic acid remained high. Although the cost side provided certain support to the market, the enthusiasm of downstream terminal manufacturers to enter the market for procurement was not high, mainly based on a small amount of replenishment for rigid demand. The overall transaction was relatively light, and industry insiders were cautious and waited and watched. The transaction of factories and traders was limited, waiting for further news guidance. Subsequently, the news of fluctuations in the device end of the main factory in Shandong boosted the mentality of the industry. The reduction in auctions and the pressure of individual factories to pick up goods supported the increase in transaction volume of surrounding factories. At the same time, the industry had a good mentality for the future market, and both inquiries and transactions were increased. However, considering the weak terminal consumption, the premium was relatively rational, and a small amount of downstream purchases followed the increase and entered the market, mostly for rigid demand.

Next week, the supply level will decrease month-on-month. While the circulation of local resources will decrease, the low inventory of factories is good for the sellers' mentality, while the actual consumption on the demand side has not improved significantly, mainly based on cyclical replenishment. The cost side is relatively weak, and there is no strong support for the market. Longzhong predicts that the market price of ethyl acetate will fluctuate in a range next week, and the rise and fall will be limited.

Butyl acetate situation
This week, the market price of butyl acetate fell. The lowest price in the East China market was 6475 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6575 yuan/ton, and the average price was 6525 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from last week, down 1.36 percentage points from the previous week.

At the beginning of the week, affected by the decline in the price of raw material n-butanol, the mentality of traders and downstream companies was suppressed, and there were few buyers. At the same time, the consumption rate of downstream companies was flat, and the cost and demand sides continued to suppress the market. The mentality of the industry was sluggish and difficult to revive, and the willingness to follow the market was strong. The overall trading was very light. There were some arbitrage orders in the market, and the factory side was blocked from shipping, and the inventory was obviously accumulated. Subsequently, the incremental news on the supply side continued to be bearish on the market. Most of the holders actively prioritized shipping in volume, and the quoted prices continued to loosen. The downstream companies waited and waited for the market, and some low-priced small orders were accepted, and the bearish sentiment for the future market was significant.

As prices fall to a relatively low level, upstream companies are unwilling to continue to make concessions, and some are willing to hold on, while downstream companies are more cautious. In addition, the expected increase in supply has put pressure on the market. However, there is no obvious pressure on supply at present, and the price of raw material n-butanol may have limited room for decline, which supports the bottom of the market. With the interweaving of long and short positions, Longzhong predicts that the butyl acetate market may show a volatile and weak trend.