Glacial Acetic Acid and Acetate Esters Industry Weekly Report

Glacial acetic acid
This week, the market price of glacial acetic acid continued to decline, and the trading atmosphere varied among regions. In the northwest region, the Great Wall plant has not yet recovered and the downstream demand is still good, so the factory shipments are smooth and the company's inventory is running low; the prices in North China and Shandong regions have fallen slightly, but the amplitude is not large, and the factories mainly execute long-term contracts; the central China region is constrained by the expectation of the commissioning of new plants in the later period, and the mentality in the region is weak, so the price has fallen sharply, and then as the factory's large orders are still good, the market price has slightly adjusted; although the prices in East China and South China are running low, traders are actively selling long-term contracts, and the overall inventory of factories is still good.

Analysis of glacial acetic acid inventory
As of May 12, the inventory of domestic acetic acid enterprises this week was 153,600 tons, up 5.28% from the previous month.
During this period, the inventory of glacial acetic acid was running high, and the inventory of each region varied. The inventory in the northwest region continued to decline due to the fact that the equipment had not yet recovered and the downstream demand was stable; the inventory in other regions increased slightly, but the overall sales pressure of the factory was still acceptable, and long-term contracts were mainly issued. Longzhong Information predicts that the inventory of glacial acetic acid may rise slightly in the next period.

Ethyl acetate
This week, the transaction price of ethyl acetate market rose. The lowest price in the East China market during the week was 5055 yuan/ton ex-factory, and the highest price was 5120 yuan/ton ex-factory. The weekly average price was 5076 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from last week, and up 0.32 percentage points from the previous month.

At the beginning of the week, the market price of ethyl acetate remained stable. There was a demand for replenishment in the downstream at this time, but the market situation of raw material acetic acid was relatively weak. The cost side continued to affect the mentality of the industry for the future market. At the same time, there was an expectation of restarting some units in East China on the supply side. The downstream was cautious about buying at low levels. The production and sales of various factories were still balanced. The market price of another raw material ethanol rose continuously. The cost side supported the mentality of the industry. At the same time, the factory inventory was controllable, and under the support of the macro economy, the mentality of the industry improved. The quotations of factories and holders were all raised, while the demand side had a certain drag on the market, and substantive consumption did not show a significant improvement, thereby suppressing the price increase.
Looking at next week, the easing of Sino-US trade relations will support the market's macro-psychology, but the overall market supply is sufficient. After this week's rising market, downstream orders have been received, and some orders are still to be digested. The substantial positive demand is limited. At the same time, there is new capacity release in the raw material acetic acid market, and the news continues to affect the mentality of the industry. Longzhong expects that the price range of ethyl acetate market will be adjusted next week.

Butyl acetate
This week, the transaction center of the butyl acetate market fell first and then rose. The lowest price in the East China market during the week was 5975 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6100 yuan/ton, and the weekly average price was 6020 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from last week, down 0.36 percentage points from the previous week.

At the beginning of the week, the butyl acetate market saw a stabilization of prices due to the boost from the cost side, and the enthusiasm of downstream market inquiries increased significantly. The low-price buying orders for rigid demand increased in volume, and most factories shipped smoothly. At the same time, local export orders were executed, supporting the quotations of upstream factories. Subsequently, the price of raw material n-butanol was stable and slightly strong, and the cost side supported the mentality of the industry, but the market's actual order follow-up performance was general. Except for the negotiation of rigid demand, there was no obvious position building behavior. The holders mostly executed the previous orders for arbitrage shipments. As the macro environment improved near the end of the week, the market price of raw material n-butanol rose widely, resulting in increased production cost pressure for factories. At the same time, it boosted the enthusiasm of industry players to enter the market. Factories followed the rise in raw materials. Downstream and traders were afraid of rising prices, and the trading atmosphere was still mild.
After the price increase this week, the transaction atmosphere warmed up, but the downstream demand was flat, which suppressed the price increase. However, due to the strong support of the market for the price of raw material n-butanol, the factory had no profit-making mood under the high cost, and the supply side was sufficient. Longzhong expects that the butyl acetate market may temporarily stabilize in the short term, and the momentum for further increase is lacking.

_{Market Forecast and Analysis}
Supply Forecast:
Sinopec Great Wall and Jiantao Phase II are expected to resume normal operation in the next period. We also need to pay attention to the progress of Hubei Qianxin's new unit. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will rise next week.
Demand Forecast:
Ethyl acetate Jinyimeng unit will operate normally next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise next week; Butyl acetate Ruibo unit has recently resumed, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise next week; Vinyl acetate is expected to restart next week Lianhong, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise; PTA Sichuan Energy Investment and Xinjiang Zhongtai have restart plans, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise.
Comprehensive Forecast:
Recently, most of the industry players are bearish on the future prices due to the expectation of the commissioning of new units, but the recent macro-optimism has led to a rise in upstream and downstream prices. We also need to pay attention to the linkage with glacial acetic acid in the future. Longzhong Information predicts that the market may be stable in the next period.