As of May 9, the domestic production of glacial acetic acid this week was 240,400 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 93.36%.
Market Forecast and Analysis
Supply Forecast: Tianjin Alkali is expected to resume normal operation next week. If there are no other device failures, the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly next week.
Demand Forecast: The Guangxi Jinyuan unit of ethyl acetate will be restarted next week, and some units in East China will be planned for maintenance. The start-up of ethyl acetate will not fluctuate much next week; the Baichuan unit of butyl acetate is planned to be restarted, and the start-up of butyl acetate will rebound next week; the fluctuation of vinyl acetate will not be large next week; PTA will be restarted next week in Hengli Huizhou 1#, Yisheng New Materials 2# will be overhauled, and some units will be loaded, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline.
Comprehensive Forecast: At present, there is no great sales pressure on glacial acetic acid factories, downstream demand is mixed, and the factory supply remains high. It is expected that the price of glacial acetic acid may remain strong in the next period.
Glacial acetic acid
This week, the profit of glacial acetic acid downstream is mainly lower.
After the holiday, the glacial acetic acid factory has not had much pressure on inventory due to the good shipments during the holiday period. In addition, the maintenance plan for this month has been issued, so the overall trading atmosphere in the market is good, and the higher prices drive the profit up. Due to the higher raw material prices, the downstream of ethyl acetate and butyl acetate cannot follow up as fast as the upstream, and the overall profit is lower; vinyl acetate is affected by the lower price of raw material ethylene, so the profit gradually recovers.
During the holiday, the overall shipment of the factory was less affected, so the overall inventory of the enterprise fluctuated narrowly, and the overall sales pressure of the factory was not great. In addition, the maintenance plan of Celanese and Henan Shunda this month was issued, and the overall market atmosphere was strong, and the factory raised the price one after another; and with the failure of the natural alkali plant to reduce the load, the price of the Northwest auction was premium, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market was pushed up again. The factory continued to raise the price, and the downstream mostly executed long-term contracts and just-needed replenishment.
Ethyl acetate
With the dissipation of the holiday impact and the poor pre-holiday stocking of downstream, there is a certain demand for buying after the holiday, the market transaction volume continues to increase, and the upstream inventory pressure is relieved. Then the raw material acetic acid holiday inventory accumulation strength is less than expected, and the supply side later maintenance plan is released, resulting in the market benefits being implemented, its price continues to rise, the cost side operation is strong to breed the market incremental buying sentiment, the mainstream factory auction premium is expanding, and the production and sales performance is positive. After the end of the phased buying, the market sentiment returned to rationality, the upstream inventory continued to shift downward, and the trade and downstream positions were mostly, and some holders were willing to take profits and actively shipped.
With the continuous expansion of this week’s increase, the downstream purchasing rhythm declined in the later period. Although there are factories in East China that have plans to reduce the maintenance of storage tanks, the overall market supply is sufficient. Most industry players believe that the price of raw material acetic acid remains strong, but the weak demand phenomenon will continue to drag down the operation of ethyl acetate factories. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will enter a short consolidation period next week, and it is not ruled out that it will rise again, and the overall center of gravity will rise compared with this week.
Butyl acetate
After the holiday, the market price of butyl acetate followed the raw material side to rise, but the overall increase was weaker than the raw material performance. The main reason was the weak downstream demand. Some downstream companies said that their own product shipments were currently scarce, and it was difficult for prices to follow the raw materials. They maintained a small order purchase rhythm for raw materials for a long time. In addition, with the recent recovery of foreign supply and weakening prices, export order negotiations were not smooth, thus suppressing the overall market growth. Although some devices on the supply side were temporarily stopped, there was still inventory circulation, and the overall supply performance was stable, which could not increase the overall buying enthusiasm. Under the condition of the continuous expansion of the supply and demand gap, the upstream gave priority to shipments.
Next week, the supply side is sufficient, while the downstream consumption is slow. The overall supply and demand contradiction in the market is relatively prominent. If the cost support weakens, the absolute price of butyl acetate will fall. It is expected that the market price of butyl acetate will fluctuate in the range next week, and attention should be paid to the follow-up of the downstream.
Post time: May-10-2024