Glacial Acetic Acid Industry Weekly Report

Market Overview

Methanol prices have risen since the Spring Festival, increasing the cost of glacial acetic acid. During this period, Glacial Acetic Acid prices rose across all regions, but the increases varied significantly. Prices in North China rose by 42 yuan/ton, a 1.6% increase; East China and South China saw smaller increases, at 0.08% and 0.31% respectively. The varying price increases across regions were due to better overall trading activity in the Northwest compared to East and South China.

During the Spring Festival, glacial acetic acid supply in Northwest China decreased, leading to significant price increases by producers. After the holiday, the upward trend continued in the Northwest, with prices in North China, Shandong, and Central China also rising. Overall trading activity was acceptable, but factories in the region experienced increased inventory due to the Spring Festival. Trading activity in East and South China was generally flat, with prices mostly stable. After mid-week, as prices in the North continued to rise, offers in East and South China gradually increased, but transaction activity fell short of expectations.

Ethyl Acetate
The ethyl acetate market price range was weak this week.

During the Spring Festival holiday, Ethyl Acetate prices remained relatively stable. After the holiday, the market generally showed a consolidation trend with minor fluctuations. While trading activity rebounded somewhat compared to the holiday period, the recovery was relatively slow. Major factories saw increased auction sales compared to the holiday, but transactions were mostly concentrated at the lower end of the price range, with limited market enthusiasm for chasing higher prices. Most other factories experienced only moderate overall sales. Although raw material acetic acid prices rose significantly in some areas, its support for the market was limited. Downstream end-user companies resumed operations relatively slowly, resulting in weak new order purchases and insufficient raw material consumption capacity. Factories remained primarily focused on selling off inventory.

Currently, the ethyl acetate market is in a slow recovery phase after the holiday. From the supply side, some companies still face inventory pressure and prioritize reducing inventory and selling off stock. On the demand side, downstream factories resumed operations at varying paces, and some end-user companies are still depleting their pre-holiday inventory, with no signs of concentrated restocking, resulting in limited overall market transaction volume. Furthermore, the lack of strong guidance from raw materials has led to a cautious attitude among traders, who are mostly choosing to wait and see or make small, tentative entries into the market. Longzhong Information predicts that the ethyl acetate market will continue its narrow range fluctuations next week, with attention focused on the progress of downstream resumption of work and changes in raw material prices.

Butyl Acetate

The price of butyl acetate fell slightly this week.

During the holiday, both upstream and downstream industries entered a holiday period, with some factories shutting down or reducing production, resulting in a contraction in market supply and a situation of weak supply and demand. The market gradually started to recover after the holiday, but the pace was slow. From the cost side, the raw material markets for acetic acid and n-butanol showed regional trends with limited overall fluctuations, lacking clear directional guidance for the butyl acetate market. Regarding supply and demand, although the overall spot supply pressure for manufacturers in many regions was not significant, relatively weak demand became a key factor restricting the market. Constrained by negative feedback sentiment on the demand side, factories lacked the motivation to adjust prices. Currently, the butyl acetate market is in a stage of "weak cost support and a stalemate between supply and demand." Upstream demand and the slow pace of downstream resumption of work have created a stalemate, and the market lacks substantial positive factors to boost it. Longzhong predicts that the domestic butyl acetate market will continue its narrow range-bound trading in the short term, with limited room for price fluctuations. The key focus going forward will be on price changes in raw materials acetic acid and n-butanol, as well as the resumption pace and actual restocking efforts of downstream factories.

Next Market Outlook

After the holiday, the Glacial Acetic Acid market is experiencing mixed trading activity. Next week, with stable supply and increasing demand, market activity may improve, and glacial acetic acid prices are expected to remain firm.

Key Focus Areas:
1. Supply Side: Barring unforeseen plant malfunctions, glacial acetic acid capacity utilization is expected to remain stable next week.

2. Demand Side: PTA production is expected to restart at Zhuhai INEOS over the weekend, and coupled with the restart of new materials this week, capacity utilization is likely to increase significantly. Due to the later resumption of downstream operations, factories are flexibly adjusting their operating rates, and capacity utilization for ethyl acetate and butyl acetate is expected to gradually recover next week. Vinyl acetate production is expected to remain relatively stable next week.

3. Methanol Costs: Next week, the methanol market will see a significant increase in supply, especially in imports. Traditional downstream plants that were previously shut down or reduced their operating rates are expected to restart, and inventories will continue to accumulate.