Glacial acetic acid industry weekly report

Glacial acetic acid

This week, the Glacial Acetic Acid market was constrained by the gradual increase in supply and the lack of support from the industry's mentality, and the price was running low.
At the beginning of the week, the inventory of glacial acetic acid enterprises was running high, and the shipping sentiment of factories in different regions was different. After the Serra and Longyu devices resumed normal operation, the overall capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid recovered to more than 90%, so some regional factories successively lowered prices to promote shipments; near the middle of the week, the company's shipment situation did not improve significantly, and the downstream mainly executed long-term contracts. The market trading atmosphere was flat, so the price continued to run low. At present, some factories have gradually approached the loss line, and attention should be paid to the market supply and the progress of the new device of Shanghai Huayi.

Weekly supply changes
The planned maintenance unit was restored during the week, and the Hubei Qianxin unit was upgraded to full production, and the domestic glacial acetic acid supply increased. The output of glacial acetic acid in this period was 260,900 tons, an increase of 39,100 tons from the previous period, an increase of 17.63%, and the capacity utilization rate was 95.65%.

The utilization rate of the main downstream production capacity
The utilization rate of ethyl acetate and butyl acetate decreased compared with the previous period. The Jinjiang plant of ethyl acetate in Taixing was shut down, the Baichuan and Lier'an plants were restarted, and the Southwest plant is expected to produce products in the evening. The utilization rate of ethyl acetate capacity has dropped significantly this week. The Jinyimeng and Yisheng plants of butyl acetate remain shut down, the Yangtze River plant is converted to produce ethyl acetate, the Jinjiang plant in Taixing is shut down, and the load of the Lunan plant of Yanzhou Coal Mine changes. The utilization rate of butyl acetate capacity has dropped widely this week.

Ethyl acetate
This week, the transaction price range of ethyl acetate market was adjusted. The lowest price in the East China market during the week was 5075 yuan/ton ex-factory, and the highest price was 5180 yuan/ton ex-factory. The weekly average price was 5148 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week, and down 0.10 percentage points from the previous week.
After the decline in the ethyl acetate market during the week, the transaction improved significantly. The operation of Shandong equipment was unstable. Supported by its low inventory and stable raw material prices, some low-level buying demand was released, especially there was an arbitrage window between some regions, and the local arbitrage between Shandong and Jiangsu continued to remain open. At the same time, in conjunction with the execution of some export orders and the maintenance plan of the mainstream factories in East China, the inventory of upstream factories continued to be low, and the reduction in the supply side supported its quotation increase, but the domestic demand consumption speed was general, the downstream operation was not high, and the price of raw material acetic acid fell again, affecting its willingness to buy, and it was mainly based on rigid demand.
Looking at the week, the Jinjiang plant in Taixing has been under maintenance for a week, which supports the factory's firm quotation in the short term, but the domestic demand side has a certain drag on the market. As the temperature rises, downstream purchases are mainly based on rigid demand. At the same time, there are still new plants expected to be put into production for raw acetic acid, which affects its delivery rhythm. Fortunately, the execution of individual export orders may be beneficial to the market. With both positive and negative market conditions, Longzhong believes that the market price of ethyl acetate will fluctuate in a range next week.

Butyl acetateThis week, the market price range of butyl acetate was narrow. The lowest price in the East China market was 5,850 yuan/ton, the highest price was 5,900 yuan/ton, and the average price was 5,870 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from last week, up 0.02 percentage points from the previous month.
This week, the supply side declined significantly, especially in Shandong. The Yanzhou Coal Mine Lunan unit fluctuated frequently, resulting in its inventory continuing to run at a low level, and the regional arbitrage window continued to be maintained. Export orders supported low-end premium transactions, while other factories were not shipping well, and there was no substantial improvement in the surrounding downstream demand. At the same time, the prices of raw materials n-butanol and acetic acid were stable and weak, and the cost side did not support the market for the time being. The willingness of downstream buyers was insufficient, and the factory inventory destocking was very limited. The transaction atmosphere in various regions was different, and buying was mostly concentrated at the low end. Subsequently, the maintenance plan of the mainstream factories in East China was reported, and the supply side reduced to support the upstream quotation increase, but it did not stimulate strong buying demand, and the trading atmosphere continued to be flat.
Looking at next week, although there is no obvious pressure on the inventory of various factories, it is expected that the supply side will increase next week, which may suppress the market sentiment. At the same time, the demand is insufficient, and the downstream is more cautious in waiting and entering the market. It is expected that butyl acetate may run steadily in the short term, and may weaken in the later period.

Market Outlook for the Next Period
The supply of glacial acetic acid will continue to rise in the next period, and the demand side will increase slightly, but the growth rate will not be as fast as the supply, and the price will continue to decline.
Key Focus:
1. Supply side. Anhui Huayi may resume normal operation in the next period, and Shanghai Huayi's new device is expected to produce products. If there is no unexpected failure of other devices, the overall supply of glacial acetic acid will rise.
2. Demand side. There will be little change in domestic PTA devices in the next period, and most of them will maintain stable operation. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will decline slightly next week; the Yangtze River and Baichuan devices of ethyl acetate will operate normally next week, the capacity utilization rate of ethyl acetate will increase, and the butyl acetate device will be overhauled, and the demand will decline, but the overall consumption side is expected to increase slightly;
3. Cost side. The overall supply and demand data of methanol continue to narrow positively, which is expected to be beneficial to prices. On the whole, the overall supply and demand data of glacial acetic acid continue to expand positively, which is expected to be negative for prices and difficult to support the bottom price of glacial acetic acid.